Urban Honolulu MSA vs. Hawaii Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Urban Honolulu MSA: 2022 Population = 995,638 2022 Percent of State = 0.35% Hawaii: 2022 Population = 1,440,196 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.43% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Urban Honolulu MSA with comparisons to Hawaii and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Urban Honolulu MSA vs. Hawaii's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces the Urban Honolulu MSA's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the Urban Honolulu MSA's population rose from 603,438 in 1969 to 995,638 in 2022, for a net gain of 392,200, or 64.99%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Hawaii's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Hawaii's population rose from 743,000 in 1969 to 1,440,196 in 2022, for a net gain of 697,196, or 93.84%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays the Urban Honolulu MSA's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Hawaii, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Urban Honolulu MSA's overall population growth was 64.99% over 1969-2022 trailed Hawaii's increase of 93.84%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Hawaii Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of the Urban Honolulu MSA is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Hawaii's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Hawaii's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, the Urban Honolulu MSA's population comprised 81.22% of Hawaii's population, while in 2022 it totaled 69.13% thereby yielding a -12.08% share-shift.
Urban Honolulu MSA Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of the Urban Honolulu MSA's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Urban Honolulu MSA's population grew at an annual rate of 0.95% over 1970-2022. The Urban Honolulu MSA recorded its highest growth in 1972 (5.02%) and posted its lowest growth in 1999 (-0.90%). In 2022, the Urban Honolulu MSA's population declined by -0.90% Urban Honolulu MSA Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in the Urban Honolulu MSA's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the Urban Honolulu MSA's annual population growth rate averaged 2.25%. It averaged 0.99% during the 1980s, 0.56% during the 1990s, 0.71% in the 2000s, 0.78% in the 2010s, -0.76% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Urban Honolulu MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Hawaii and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Urban Honolulu MSA's average annual population growth amounted to less than Hawaii's average in the 1970s (2.25% vs. 2.49%), posted below Hawaii's average throughout the 1980s (0.99% vs. 1.43%), fell below Hawaii's average in the 1990s (0.56% vs. 1.01%), trailed Hawaii's average throughout the 2000s (0.71% vs. 1.07%), posted below Hawaii's average during the 2010s (0.78% vs. 0.79%), and recorded under Hawaii's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.76% vs. -0.39%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Urban Honolulu MSA registered above the nation throughout the 1970s (2.25% vs. 1.10%), registered above the nation over the 1980s (0.99% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation during the 1990s (0.56% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation in the 2000s (0.71% vs. 0.95%), outpaced the nation throughout the 2010s (0.78% vs. 0.74%), and posted below the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.76% vs. 0.31%).
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